Immediately after the US/UK invasion, there was a brief opportunity for civil society to establich the human cost of the war. The initiatives which rose to that challenge, or attempted to, are reviewed here.
Their efforts, like IBC's up to that time, were to prove incomplete not only from lack of resources and reliable data, as the article discusses, but because only a single phase � the invasion leading to 'regime change' � of the war was over.
3.B.2 Projects still under way, who have not issued final reports
The best publicised project currently under way is the Survey of civilian deaths in Iraq (#11) conducted under the auspices of the Campaign for Innocent Victims in Conflict (CIVIC), led by Marla Ruzicka, an independent US peace activist (most recently reported by ABC News on May 28th). She has organised 150 surveyors who are travelling the length and breadth of Iraq, conducting interviews door-to-door with victims and witnesses in the worst-affected areas.
At the time of the ABC interview this project has documented 620 civilian deaths in Baghdad, 256 in Najaf, 425 in Karbala and as many as 1,100 in Nasiriyah, and researchers were still at work in Kirkuk, Najaf, Ramadi, Amara, Kut, Diwaniyah, and Basrah. This makes the project potentially the most comprehensive and labour intensive project so far in Iraq. In this context it is surprising that, according to press reports, the work currently receives no public or NGO funding, and that funds are down to the last $50 (though donations may be made via their website).
[UPDATE: The Washington Times (June 16) reports that CIVIC has received a grant from USAID to carry on its work.]
Ruzicka came to public attention in 2001 for a somewhat similar project undertaken in Afghanistan, using local researchers. Her work convinced Senator Patrick Leahy (Democrat- Vermont) to insert language in an appropriations bill allocating $3.75 million to help Afghan victims (but of which sadly nothing so far has been disbursed, according to the CSM). Leahy has been responsible for ensuring that the Iraq War Supplemental Bill (signed by President Bush on 16th April 2003) directs that an unspecified portion of the $2.4 billion appropriated for relief and reconstruction in Iraq should pay for “assistance for families of innocent Iraqi civilians who suffer losses as a result of military operations”. Ruzicka’s concern for getting money to victims is admirable, but it places on her a particular responsibility to provide well-documented primary data. Although the CIVIC website says that “CIVIC will share survey results with all NGO’s who are interested in conducting similar studies in Iraq”, the only reports of this work currently available are rather cursory press reports. This limits the current usefulness of this study. We hope that a full and detailed report of the research will be made available by CIVIC as soon as time and resources permit.
A second project announced as under way is the Survey of dead, injured, and missing (#12) by the Iraqi Red Crescent. The most recent report of this work was given in a Christian Science Monitor article dated May 22nd. In that article, Haidar Taie, head of the department for tracing missing persons, is reported as saying “thousands are dead, thousands are missing, thousands are captured”. Another official told the CSM that “In Baghdad we have discovered 1,000 graves, and that is not the final figure. Every day we discover more”. At one time it was reported that the Red Crescent would be issuing total figures by mid-May. It is now nearly mid-June and no report has appeared. In the same CSM report, two researchers from two different teams who “asked not to be identified until the evidence was clearer” were quoted as saying the number of civilian deaths might be as high as 10,000. Until we know who these researchers are, and what methodology they are using, we must, however, treat this estimate with caution.
Focusing on mines and abandoned or “dud” munitions, a Survey of deaths through unexploded ordnance in Northern Iraq (#13) has been reported undertaken by the UK-based Mines Advisory Group (MAG), and on a smaller scale by the US-based Human Rights Watch (HRW). MAG is also involved in co-ordinating removal of unexploded ordnance in various locations, as well as public education projects to try to avoid further death and injury. Cursory and undetailed reports appear on the websites of both organisations, and have been variously reported in the press. Both groups claim large numbers of continuing deaths after the end of the hostilities. On 27th April, HRW claimed that the number of civilians killed or wounded since the war ended in northern Iraq was higher than it was during the conflict. On April 17th MAG published a statement saying that
“Fifty-two killed and 63 injured by landmines and unexploded ordnance (UXO); these are the devastating statistics in just one week coming from the main hospital in Kirkuk, northern Iraq. The real figures will be much higher as we know that many deaths are not recorded. There is no death registration system.”
There is no more recent report from either organisation than end April, and no clear indication of scope or methodology of data-collection. There is at least one press report that HRW is currently conducting a general survey of civilian casualties in Iraq, but no announcement, details or mention of this are on HRW’s website, and it has therefore not been added to our table below.
3.B.3 Statements of intent (projects planned but not underway)
Our round-up of projects concludes with mention of two projects which have been announced, but appear not to have published any outcomes at all, even interim ones. The first, and apparently more comprehensive project is that announced on 29th April by the charity MedAct entitled The short, medium and long-term health effects of war on Iraq (#14). This project plans to bring together a whole range of health indicators, including, of most direct relevance to our concerns, direct and indirect deaths (combatants and civilians by age and gender on both sides) and deaths from post-war violence. Involving a very impressive list of international advisors, the project promises that its “full overview of the short- and medium-term effects of the war will be published in the autumn.”
The final project is referred to in connection with the Iraq war in an April 15th Washington Post article. A study on civilian suffering in war (#15) is being conducted under the auspices of the Carr Center for Human Rights Policy at Harvard University. The director of this project, Sarah Sewall, is quoted as saying that obtaining totals would be an unrealistic aim “given the size, intensity and speed of the US campaign” but that “investigating at least some incidents would not only bolster US credibility but also contribute to better military planning next time by understading the actual effects of particular US battlefield decisions”. There is as yet no information published on scope, sources, methodology or a delivery date for this study.